⚡The Mt. Gox Distribution and Your Portfolio
Plus onchain prediction markets grow, Storm Trade on TON, and more
📈Trends and Narratives
The $9B Mt. Gox Distribution and What it Means for Your Portfolio
It’s hard to believe we’re still living in the aftermath of the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse. The security breach of the largest Bitcoin exchange at the time resulted in the loss of over 700,000 BTC.
Over the last few years, the MtGox Rehabilitation Trustee has begun distributing payments to recipients. Currently, there are 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH as well as nearly half a billion USD in fiat, all waiting to be repaid to those who were victims of the hack.
In September of 2023, the MtGox Rehabilitation Trustee delayed the repayments with a deadline of October 2024. Bitcoin went up 5% the day of this news (BTC was in the low 20k’s at the time), likely due to the positive sentiment of all the Bitcoin supply being ‘locked’ for another year.
Well, the time for those repayments is finally here, according to the Rehabilitation Trustee:
In late May, we had hints that something was going on when a Mt. Gox cold wallet began moving BTC for the first time in years:
With nearly $9B worth of BTC waiting to be repaid, this is equivalent to all BTC mined in the past 6 months.
Alex Thorn, the Head of Research at Galaxy, dropped a helpful thread explaining more about the distribution and makes a case for less sell pressure than people are currently expecting:
How to Capitalize
It’s important to remember that, even if payments all were to go out immediately, distribution will likely take quite some time. It’s unlikely that all 140k BTC will flood the market in a series of hours; in some ways this is person as it could mean months of selling pressure.
Now is a good time to return to your core thesis - what is it that you believe about crypto and Bitcoin? Why are you holding what you’re holding, and are you willing to hold it through more volatility? If the answer is no, your holdings may require some tweaking until that answer is yes.
Some hopium:
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🔢On-Chain Analysis
Prediction Market TVL Hits New Highs, Up 300% YoY
Polymarket is a popular betting platform, with markets ranging from business to crypto to politics - it’s TVL is up over 60% in the last 30 days.
Prediction market volume and users are also up substantially from the beginning of the year:
With an increased global appetite for betting and the U.S. elections looming, expect prediction markets to continue to capture attention, usage and TVL.
🚜Farm of the Week
Storm Trade
Storm Trade is a perp DEX on TON. It’s a mini-app built directly into Telegram, and allows for a solid mobile perp trading experience.
How it Works
There are several ways to capitalize on this. You can provide USDT and TON for yield, which is earned from protocol trading revenue:
You can also trade directly in Telegram:
Both liquidity provision and trading earn Reward Points for Storm, and there’s a confirmed airdrop coming.
Providing liquidity for TON that you’re holding is a great way to put your TON to work - earn yield and points for the coming airdrop. Just keep in mind your liquidity is acting as a counterparty to traders.
Risks
Earning protocol fees from traders is essentially betting against traders on the app - yield can vary greatly depending on protocol usage and user trading performance.
Impermanent Loss
Here’s the difference between APY and APR. Hint; APY takes compounding into account, and APR does not.
More Yield & Airdrops on TON
There are big opportunities to earn yield and farm airdrops on TON. Here’s a video to get you started:
🛠️Tool Spotlight
CoinMarketCal Is Your Crypto Calendar
CoinMarketCal is an economic calendar for tokens, chains and NFTs.
Find upcoming events & catalysts, previous events and use CoinMarketCal’s advanced search to stay up to speed on chain-specific events, airdrops, partnerships, forks and more.
📅Key Events This Week
Macro Events
📊US CB consumer confidence - June 25th
📊New home sales data - June 26th
📊Q1 2024 final GDP data - June 27th
📊 Fed monetary policy report - June 28th
Token Unlocks
🔓 ALT (6.92%) - June 25th
🔓 AXL (4.26%) - June 27th
🔓 YCG (4.48%) - June 27th
🔓 AGIX (0.67%) - June 28th
🔓 OP (2.87%) - June 29th
🔓 WOO (0.63%) - June 29th
🔓 STRK (2.74%) - June 29th
🔓 PORTAL (0.52%) - June 29th
Launches & Updates
Note that these launches are mostly unvetted by the Dynamo DeFi team and this isn’t an endorsement of any of them.
🚀 Metal L2 smart contract upgrade - June 25th (Source)
🚀 BTFS halving - June 25th (Source)
🚀 Klayr blockchain launch - June 25th (Source)
🚀 Movieblock MBL-i launch - June 25th (Source)
🚀 Reef new product launch - June 26th (Source)
🚀 FluxEdge GPU marketplace alpha launch - June 26th (Source)
🚀 Blast airdrop - June 26th (Source)
🚀 GameSwift modular chain testnet - June 27th (Source)
🚀 Delysium quarterly staking update - June 28th (Source)
⚡Favorite Resources
If you want to dive deeper, here are some of my favorite resources:
🛠️ The Dynamo DeFi Crypto Tools List: A comprehensive list of 100+ crypto tools to help with portfolio tracking, analytics, airdrops and more.
🚀 RocketX: The 1-stop-shop to get the best rates for on-chain & cross-chain swaps.
🛡️ Ledger: The smartest way to secure your crypto. Buy & sell crypto with full control over your assets.
🔓 TokenUnlocks: Track token unlocks and make better investment decisions. Use my code DDNM5 for 5% off Pro Plans.
For more frequent content, follow me on Twitter and YouTube.
Until next time,
Dynamo DeFi